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Entries in industry breakout (6)

Monday
Apr272009

Update on What's Going On

I thought I had better make a post since I have been silent for quite some time.  I've been busy on my OTHER blog Blog On Smog.  It is an environmental blog and I'm restructuring it to have 7 bloggers, one for each day of the week.  It has been a lot of work and lots of fun but it is starting to settle down so I have a bit more time for StockMarketStudent.  This post won't be as fancy as my previous posts - I thought I would let everyone know what's happening.

I decided today to jump into the port that I developed:  Industry Breakout 19DEC08.  I bought 13 stocks today and will continue to buy the remainder of the port in the near future.  As crazy as it sounds I have decided to make my holdings public.  Here is the port for anyone wishing to follow along:

http://www.portfolio123.com/port_summary.jsp?portid=417595

This means that you will know absolutely how I am doing.  I won't be telling any little white lies about my performance as you can see the performance for yourself.  I have no illusions about how it might perform.  We are heading into May - the time when smallcaps start to collapse.   And the DJIA is having difficulty rising much above the 8000 (resistance) level.  The final strike is that everyone is starting to say the bear market is over.  Being a contrarian, I think this means that maybe we are headed downwards again. 

In any case, I have some difficulties with my trading account because I am a Canadian holding my money in U.S. securities (money market fund or stocks).  As the Canadian dollar edges back up to parity with the greenback, it will result in significant loss of capital if I sit there doing nothing.  I also don't want to take the chance that the stock market bear really is over and miss the boat on a significant bull market.

Now there is a very high correlation between the plight of the Canadian Dollar and the U.S. stock markets.  They rise and fall together.  For all these reasons I am jumping into the stock market, for better or worse.   Wish me luck.

By the way, I am not a financial advisor and am in no way advising readers to buy the same stocks I am holding.  This blog is for educational purposes (and entertainment especially if I fall flat on my face).

The other event that has occurred is that one of my colleagues, Jerrod Mason, has generated an EXCEL spreadsheet that runs and downloads Portfolio123 screen backtests.  Now I have promised not to release the spreadsheet but I will be testing it and posting on what I get out of it.  If enough people beg for it then just maybe Jerrod will give the nod but right now it is private.  So look forward to a peak under the hood in the next few posts.

Steve

 

Friday
Feb062009

Back to the Future

StockMarketStudent

Sphere: Related Content                                        Stumble It!

Returning to an old stock trading system
So I have learned some new tricks while developing the "Industry Breakout" system.  Now I am going back to my original system called "Industry Bull" as I think there is still some potential for the industry strength concept.
                                                                                  

Details of my "Industry Strength" system can be found here.  I had put this system aside with an unsatisfactory drawdown of 20% that could not easily be mitigated.  Now I have returned to this system and started tweaking it with some tricks I have learned over the last couple of months.  Some of the changes are:

  • Moving to a slightly better ranking system (Olikea's Brainchild)
  • Adding a buy rule based on industry breakout (FMedian("RSI(7)",#Industry) > 60)
  • Limiting industry weight by adding a sell rule:  Eval(IndWeight > 15, 0.333,0)

 

I learned the above while developing the Industry Breakout system.  I also added some tweaks to maximize performance:

  • Don't buy stocks following a significant down week.  Buy rule is:  Close(0)/Close(5) > 0.99
  • I reduced the number of stocks from 30 to 20
  • I changed the maximum weight deviation from 30% to 50%
The new system rules are as follows:
Stock trading system rules
Performance is shown below:

Stock trading system performance results
The things I like about this tweaked system are that the profit per trade is a whopping 30% and that the returns on good years is sufficient that I can afford to do some hedging to boost the returns on bad years.

I will attempt to do some robustness testing on this system next post and then follow up with some comparison analysis between the two systems I have developed:  "Industry Bull" and "Industry Breakout".

The following are publicly accessible (to Portfolio123 members):

The simulation backtest is available here: http://www.portfolio123.com/port_summary.jsp?portid=409940.

The custom universe is available here: http://www.portfolio123.com/screen_summary.jsp?mt=7&screenid=20173

The ranking system is available here:  http://www.portfolio123.com/app/ranking-system/72662

Have a good weekend!
Steve